The fourth quarter of 2018 sparked anxiety about the future of the US economy. Stock prices fell dramatically, partly due to fears over rising trade tensions and a yield curve that moved perilously close to inversion, a milestone that in the past has been a reliable indicator of recession on the horizon. Adding fuel to the fire, the government shut down just before Christmas over a budget dispute, causing 800,000 federal employees to miss their paychecks and raising questions about broader damage to the economy.
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