Beyond the Headlines: Uncovering Atlanta’s Untapped Real Estate Potential for Institutional Investors

An Interview with Atlanta Development Partner Sean Rosko

The Atlanta metropolitan area continues to present a compelling case for institutional real estate investing. Despite a competitive landscape, the market demonstrates robust fundamentals driven by unique local trends, population growth, and evolving renter demographics. An in-depth look reveals significant real estate investment opportunities, particularly in suburban submarkets and areas benefiting from transformative infrastructure projects.

To understand the nuanced dynamics shaping Atlanta, we draw on insights from Sean Rosko, an Atlanta Development Partner at Middleburg. His perspective highlights the subtle shifts and qualitative factors that data alone may not capture, offering a clear picture for institutional investors evaluating the best upcoming real estate markets in Georgia and beyond.

Suburban Expansion and the Work-From-Home Effect

The post-pandemic era solidified a significant shift in living patterns, with remote work acting as a primary catalyst for suburban growth. This trend reshaped demand, pushing population growth and ensuing development into areas previously considered peripheral.

Rosko explains, “We've seen about a 50% increase in work-from-home pre-pandemic versus post-pandemic.” This change has untethered a large segment of the workforce from the downtown Atlanta urban core, allowing them to seek communities with more space and a different lifestyle without sacrificing access to employment.

Rosko likens this to historical patterns of expansion: “It's similar to the suburban sprawl created by the interstates. You're seeing the ability for people to be outside of Atlanta and still be within a community.” This has led to a suburban boom, creating new absorption challenges but also setting the stage for future growth. While the surge in new supply created a temporary concessionary market, the underlying demand remains strong.

Rosko forecasts a positive outlook for greater Atlanta, stating, “As we move forward and there's been a little bit of a lull in supply, we're going to see that each one of these suburban markets is going to have record absorptions and continue record absorptions over the years.”

This indicates that the current competitive environment is a temporary phase, paving the way for sustained demand in well-chosen suburban locations. Rosko adds, "The suburban markets are on the cusp of record-setting demand, and this is only the beginning of what we’re likely to see in the coming years."

The Beltline: A Unique Driver of Urban Growth

While suburbs are expanding, certain urban submarkets are outperforming the general market due to unique, community-centric infrastructure. The Atlanta Beltline, a former railway corridor turned multi-use trail, has become a powerful engine for real estate value and growth, particularly along the Eastside Trail.

Projects such as these demonstrate how strategic placemaking can create durable demand. Rosko notes that the Eastside Beltline is one of the strongest submarkets, driven by a desire for walkability and community access. “The Eastside market in particular has had 3% to 4% growth over the last couple of years, where most other markets have been either flat or slightly negative. And that's driven by the community,” he says.

The Beltline exemplifies how strategic infrastructure initiatives cultivate environments where residents can access urban amenities—such as cafes, co-working spaces, and retail—by foot or bike. This enhanced connectivity commands a premium, attracting a stable tenant base and validating placemaking as a direct catalyst for real estate investment, resilient against typical market fluctuations.

The model of transformative infrastructure is not confined to the urban core, either. Similar projects are extending the growth paradigm into Atlanta's suburban landscape. The conversion of former railway lines, initially conceptualized by initiatives like the Georgia Tech graduate project that birthed the Beltline, is being replicated. For instance, the Silver Comet Trail extends northwest, and the Path Foundation is diligently connecting various green spaces across the region.

These developments are fostering a seamless network of trails that enable continuous pedestrian and cycling access, potentially from East Atlanta to Kennesaw. Such large-scale connectivity projects are generating substantial development opportunities, creating highly sought-after communities that are driving significant population influx and sustained demand across both urban and suburban submarkets.

Identifying Emerging Employment Centers

Atlanta’s economic resilience is anchored by a diverse and expanding job market. Key industries drive population growth and create a consistent demand for rental housing. These emerging employment centers are critical for any institutional real estate investing strategy.

Rosko points to several core sectors fueling the region's economy. “In the Atlanta market some of the largest employers revolve around the airlines and warehousing,” he notes, referencing the 60,000 employees at Hartsfield-Jackson Airport and the massive logistics hubs nearby. Similarly, the healthcare sector is a significant and growing driver. Rosko adds, “Our healthcare system is ever expanding. Piedmont and Wellstar are popping up hospitals on every corner they possibly can.”

These employment centers provide stable, middle-income jobs that directly support the rental market. This sustained job creation, coupled with the rising age of first-time homebuyers, creates a deep and reliable pool of renters.

Understanding the Modern Renter and the "Missing Middle"

The demographic profile of Atlanta’s renters is evolving, creating new opportunities for developers who understand their needs. The traditional image of a renter is outdated. Today’s market is composed of both “renters-by-choice” and a growing number of residents priced out of the homeownership market.

According to Rosko, the typical renter in Middleburg’s portfolio is “the 25-to-45 year-old individual making roughly $100,000 a year on average.” This demographic increasingly values flexibility, community, and high-quality amenities. However, another powerful force is at play: housing affordability.

“Right now your average home buyer is 56 years old because the folks between 25 and 45 at this point largely can't afford homes,” Rosko states. This dynamic creates a significant need for housing for the "missing middle"—individuals and families who earn too much for subsidized housing but are priced out of the for-sale market.

“So you're having this doubling effect of renter demand and renter creation caused by the home sale market as well as the renter-by-choice trend,” Rosko summarizes. Purpose-built rental communities that cater to both of these demographics are meeting a market need, as well as providing an essential service that supports local economies. As Rosko emphasizes, these residents "help support local business. When you start to bring rooftops to an area that is otherwise unserved by apartments, you bring in a lot of expendable income and it really helps communities grow."

Navigating Development Hurdles: Entitlements and Land Costs

While the demand story in Atlanta is strong, developers still face significant headwinds. For those considering institutional real estate investing, understanding these challenges is crucial.

In particular, while land costs remain elevated, the most significant obstacle is often the entitlement process.

“I would say that the entitlements are the most difficult part right now,” Rosko confirms. He explains that many municipalities, wary of overdevelopment, have become resistant to larger developers. "It's sometimes a more difficult conversation because the smaller municipalities want a smaller developer," he explains.

However, Rosko stresses that Middleburg's vertically integrated model is best equipped to provide the kind of community-focused development local municipalities are hoping to see, and that will alleviate some of the pressures of population growth.

He explains, "As a larger developer we are able to provide something at a better cost that is more affordable, better operated, and better constructed. The product that we build is for the missing middle in Atlanta. That is such a huge issue: the affordability and the current demographic looking to rent in Atlanta, and the continued growth. We are helping alleviate that issue."

Successfully navigating this environment requires deep local knowledge, creative development strategies, and the ability to demonstrate the value that modern rental communities bring to a city. It’s no longer enough to propose a project; developers must articulate a compelling vision for how new housing will contribute positively to the community's economic and social fabric.

A Forward-Looking Perspective for Investors

The Atlanta real estate market is complex, characterized by both immense opportunity and notable challenges. While supply has temporarily outpaced absorption in some submarkets, the long-term fundamentals—driven by job growth, strategic infrastructure, and evolving renter demographics—remain exceptionally strong.

For institutional investors, it's important to look beyond headline data and understand the qualitative drivers shaping the market. The suburban boom fueled by remote work, the community-building power of projects like the Beltline, and the persistent need for "missing middle" housing are creating durable real estate investment opportunities.

Success in this market requires a sophisticated approach, local expertise, and the ability to navigate a challenging entitlement landscape. By focusing on the best upcoming real estate markets within the Atlanta region and developing products that meet the needs of the modern renter, investors can position themselves to capitalize on the area's continued growth and dynamism.